Odds & Pricing — Stonkmon

Odds & pricing

Every price and probability, derived in public.

Every number on this page is a contract constant or a formula over the public listing book. Nothing is tuned by hand after launch, because nobody keeps a hand.

I · The price of a pull

Draw weight is the inverse of sealed value: w = 1 / V. Under inverse weighting the expected value of a pull collapses to a single number — the harmonic mean of the pool, H. This is an algebraic identity, not an estimate; the contract test suite asserts it by simulation.

The pull price is fixed at F = 1.5 × H. You pay 1.5× the expected pulled value; the surplus is what funds everything else: 70% to every stall, 15% under the token floor, 15% to the creator. Those three numbers are immutable, and the bounties that pay strangers to reveal and finalise pulls come out of the last one.

H / F is what a pull returns only if you take the card. It is not what a pull returns on average, because the door you pick decides the payout and most pulls end at door IV. Priced across the four doors at the rates players actually choose them, a pull returns roughly 20% of what it cost. Section III prices each door.

H — expected pulled value

$10.39

F — price to pull

$15.58

Cash back — card door

≈ 66.7%

H / F, if you keep the card

Cash back — blended

≈ 19.9%

all four doors, at observed rates

II · Inverse odds

Cheap cards surface constantly; fat cards almost never. In today's book the most drawable stall is Rustshell at 0.305% per pull, while Panaceon — $720.46 sealed — sits at 0.003%.

The fee is divided per stall, not by how much a stall holds, so both of those cards collect the same amount from every pull. Sealing more than the minimum lowers how often you are drawn and leaves your fee share unchanged.

common — any print

94.90%

377 stalls live

rare — any print

5.03%

135 stalls live

legendary — any print

0.08%

24 stalls live

III · The four doors

Door	You receive	Cash back	Chosen	The card
I — Keep	The card and everything inside	66.7%	4.7%	Leaves the pool with you
II — Relist	The stall, its future fees	66.7%	7.7%	Stays; you are the packer now
III — Shares	85% of the shares, in shares	56.7%	14.4%	Returns to its packer
IV — $STONK	Consolation from today's emission	4.8%	73.2%	Returns untouched

Door IV is the one almost everyone chooses, and it is the cheapest one the protocol can pay. What it returns is set by the redemption counter, not by how fast $STONK is emitted: the tokens you receive and the supply they are diluted against move together, so the emission schedule cancels out and only the 15% floor share is left. The counter also prices against the full 7.1B cap rather than the tokens actually outstanding, which scales the payout down again by how little of the supply has been emitted so far. Both facts are contract constants; neither is a launch-week condition that improves on its own.

settlement window 24h · silence defaults to door IV · a pending card earns no fees and cannot be delisted

IV · The ten waves

7,100 prints exist; only a fraction may be listed at once. Each wave opens 10% of every print run. The next wave unlocks itself when occupancy passes 85% and at least three days have passed — a schedule, not a decision. A wave is never reversed once opened, so the number of stalls dividing the same 70% only increases.

The table below assumes all 100 species are open. Species whose price feed failed the pre-deployment audit are allowed zero stalls and are excluded from both the quota and the 85% threshold, so live totals can be lower than shown.

Wave	Common / species	Rare / species	Legendary / species	Total stalls
1live	10	5	2	702
2	20	10	5	1,420
3	30	15	7	2,122
4	40	20	10	2,840
5	50	25	12	3,542
6	60	30	15	4,260
7	70	35	17	4,962
8	80	40	20	5,680
9	90	45	22	6,382
10	100	50	25	7,100

V · Token schedules

Emission — the only faucet

Days 1–15: 2% of the 6.745B emission inventory / day — half to packers, half to players
Day 16 on: 0.5% of the remaining reserve / day, same split, tapering forever
Consolations: half of the player share is reserved for door-IV settlements
Permanent LP: 355M (5% of cap), owned by the token contract and impossible to remove

Floor — the only guaranteed exit

Funding: 5% of each pull through day 30, then 10%; the balance goes to market buybacks
Redemption: burn $STONK for ETH at the floor price, any amount, any time, no slippage
The ratchet: floor price is monotonically non-decreasing — a contract invariant, not a policy
Launch market: official V4 pool; first 15 days allow user sells and protocol buys, then fully open
Depth: during the lock, aggregate market cash-out cannot exceed ETH deposited by buybacks